Yet Another 2005 Prediction List
Scoble's list of 2005 predictions inspired me to do a little crystal ball gazing this week. Naturally, if even one of these comes to pass, I'll look much smarter than I actually am.
Firefox's browser share will be surpassed by new non-MSFT HTML browser for Windows. Yes, Firefox is nice, and more importantly, isn't yet a target for malware. And yes, a lot of people who work near the corner of 156th St. NE and NE 40th Ave. expect Google to release a browser any day now. Despite all of this, my money is on Apple taking Safari to Windows and quickly becoming the browser to beat.
Sun Microsystems will embrace Eclipse.Eclipse 3.x is now way above the "good enough" bar and has IBM's deep pockets behind it. In 2005, Sun will cut its losses on Netbeans and do the right thing for Java by unifying on a common tool platform.
The term SOA will have been beaten to death and the software industry will invent or recycle some equally vague term to replace it.The term has zero differentiation value at this point and marketing teams across the globe are looking to coin a replacement that will give them something more interesting to say about their middleware than "we move messages around really well." If "Business Agents" become the buzzword de l'année, I expect Mary Jo Foley to hunt me down and kill me.
Intel and/or AMD will find a way to market (if not actually build) a 6Ghz CPU.As the competition heats up, I predict at least one vendor will start selling CPUs branded as 6Ghz or greater by year's end. Whether this happens by branding multicores based on the sum of the clock speeds or through more creative redefinitions of Ghz, if the result is a bump in sales, the industry will happily embrace the new measure.
BEA won't change hands.Again, conventional wisdom says that BEA is ripe. This has been the case for at least the last two years - I'm convinced that BEA will last the year without being acquired. Moreover, I would expect at least one high-profile acquisition or hire in 2005 to counter the perceived bleeding of talent in 2004.
Despite some interesting and useful new technologies being announced, PDC 2005 will be seen as a let down.Microsoft PDCs have been like Star Trek films - the "even" numbered PDCs are far better than the "odd" numbered PDCs. 2000 in Orlando (.NET) and 2003 in LA (Longhorn) were "even" numbered PDCs and both were fantastic. 1999 in Denver (NT5 redux (we really mean it this time)) and 2001 in LA (hailstorm) were lackluster. Next year's PDC has the challenge of overcoming this pattern, which is doable (I believe Star Trek Film #9 broke the streak), however, PDC 2003 was so well executed it's going to be very hard to match it, let alone exceed it.
Miguel de Icaza will leave Novell and join Google.Miguel will announce he's bored and will start a public bidding war. Microsoft will step aside as Miguel goes to Google and brings C# with him. The biggest upside is that Josh Bloch will finally write the book he's destined to write - Effective C#.
Mac OS X Media Center Edition.It's so obvious I can't believe it hasn't happened yet. Far more obvious than a Tablet PC knock-off. Sorry Robert.
XML Query, the Semantic Web, and WS-* will continue to hold promise.This is the polite way of saying that none of the above will have an explosive burst of adoption in 2005. XML Query will be lucky to be in CR by the end of 2005 (it has a huge surface area). The semantic web and RDF still require way too much deep geekery to grok. The WS-* stack will stabilize in 2005, but without platform-level support (which won't really emerge until 2006), its scope is limited to early adopters.
Scoble will make the cover of a major national news magazine.No I don't expect his Scobleness to be named man of the year, but I do believe the blog bubble will continue to grow well into 2005 to the point where Scoble will be held up as one of several emblematic corporate bloggers to grace the cover of Time, Newsweek, Businessweek, etc.. If this doesn't happen, then I predict Scoble will fulfill Pirillo's prediction and get fired for trying to make it happen, which unfortunately won't be newsworthy enough to land his mug on a cover. Again, sorry Robert.
posted on Wednesday, December 29, 2004 1:08 AM
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Comments
# re: Yet Another 2005 Prediction List Dare ObasanjoPosted @ 12/28/2004 7:56 PM>1. Firefox's browser share will be surpassed by new non-MSFT HTML browser for Windows. I can't see any incentive for Google to release a browser. There's a lot of interesting client apps they could build [an Outlook killer integrated with GMail, a killer photo sharing app based on Picasa that integrates with Flickr after they buy it, a rich client story for Orkut, etc] that make more business sense to me than getting in the browser game. I'd lose a lot of respect for the Google guys if they are wasting folks like Bosworth and Joe Beda on another IE. >7. Miguel de Icaza will leave Novell and join Google. Miguel is really big on Free Software. I'd be interested to see what anyone would offer him that would make him give that up. Miguel is a killer hire though. > 10. Scoble will make the cover of a major national news magazine. Depending on how you define major this is a sucker bet. I'm pretty sure this is inevitable.
# re: Yet Another 2005 Prediction List Anonymous CowardPosted @ 12/28/2004 10:04 PM11. Don Box has no good prediction for .Net and talks more about Google than his current employer. Don Box is looking for a job.
# re: Yet Another 2005 Prediction List Christopher R. GardnerPosted @ 12/29/2004 4:36 AMAs far as prediction #7, Bill Wagner beat Joshua Block to the punch. http://www.awprofessional.com/title/0321245660
# re: Yet Another 2005 Prediction List Mark A. RichmanPosted @ 12/29/2004 4:36 AMActually, I'd bet on a Google IM client, a la Trillian or Gaim, but integrated with GMail and some other as-yet-unreleased Google technology ;) Google would make a killing on a search-enabled iTunes-ish app. Also, a unification of Firefox, Thunderbird, and Sunbird is in the works (read, "Outlook Killer"). "Don Box is looking for a job." -- WHAT?! My bet is that Don is so happy doing what he does that it doesn't seem like a job to him anyway.
# re: Yet Another 2005 Prediction List Mike GriffinPosted @ 12/29/2004 4:44 AMSOA is nothing but an abstract concept, it has no mass and its only purpose for existing is to sell books and offer new course material. There is no such thing as SOA.
# re: Yet Another 2005 Prediction List SOAPosted @ 12/29/2004 5:07 AMMike you can't deny your saviour - come to me child!
# 2003 is even? The Math-MagicianPosted @ 12/29/2004 5:20 AMLast time I checked 2003 was and odd number...
# re: Yet Another 2005 Prediction List Ben PoweskiPosted @ 12/29/2004 5:40 AM>> Sun Microsystems will embrace Eclipse. This is still a wet dream, I hope you're right. .Net has surpassed java in solving real world problems (There are actually top notch tools, well tool, supporting their specifications). Java 5 is a dramatic step forward. Fragmentation between tool vendors has caused a lag in support for it as well as other new specifications. Give me a sun JSF wysiwyg like Java Studio Creator built on eclipse, then i'll retract my previous statement.
# Firefox v Google Damien GuardPosted @ 12/29/2004 6:43 AMI really doubt this one Don as Firefox is already cross platform and masses of techies are migrating less-able friends and family. I've recently done just this any while all these less-able people know Google for the big-name search engine it is not one knew even of GMail - all were still using Hotmail. The question is can Google leverage their monopoly on the search engine into the email, desktop search and other markets without getting in the antimonopolistic mess Microsoft found themselves in? [)amien
# re: Yet Another 2005 Prediction List Onorio CatenacciPosted @ 12/29/2004 7:52 AMA unification of Firefox, Thunderbird and Sunbird? You mean Mozilla? :-) -- Onorio
# re: Yet Another 2005 Prediction List BozoPosted @ 12/29/2004 8:18 AMSOA not real? Let's revisit this at this point next year and see... SOA is an architectural movement - it's clear that the bozos on this blog don't understand the difference between product, technology, and architecture. So, hide your head in the sand, if you wish -- just realize that SOA is an <i>inevitability</i>
# 2005 Andrew Stopford's WeblogPosted @ 12/29/2004 1:39 PM
# re: Yet Another 2005 Prediction List theCoachPosted @ 12/29/2004 11:07 AMAny votes for Longhorn getting scaled back and released as Windows XP - SP3, with Scoble leading an army of people to await THE truly next generation codenamed Gamecock OS? Promises are made that WinFS will ship 3 months after the server version, which will trail the client by six months. Bob Muglia appears miffed and less certain. ;) -- looking forward to a year of great things, Mr. Box!
# re: Yet Another 2005 Prediction List PhilPosted @ 12/29/2004 12:30 PM(3) SOA will probably be replaced by something like 'Business Process Integration' or 'Modular Integration Points' or something equally vague. (7) I'm surprised that Miguel and Nat haven't gone to Google already. I'm sure that someone have already approached them and it wasn't a good fit for them. Possibly they got the same impression of Google that Bill Joy did. (8) I'm sure someone has bounced around the idea of a Mac OS based Media Center. If they ever do release consumer devices like that they will be very unique and different from the current offerings, same way the iPod/iTunes is so much different from all other MP3 players/browsers. (9) The WS-* stack will slow down for sure. Then we wait to see how different vendors implement the specs. (10) I see Scoble on TV, interviewed at a blogging dinner somewhere, showing off the TabletPC and his Audiovox phone.
# re: Yet Another 2005 Prediction List Michael RysPosted @ 12/29/2004 12:44 PMHi Don Interesting predictions. I think that XQuery will become more interesting after SQL Server 2005 and Oracle 10gR2 will be released (both in the second half of 2005 as it currently looks) - regardless of the W3C spec status...
# re: Yet Another 2005 Prediction List Sean ChasePosted @ 12/29/2004 1:42 PM#3 is definitely a belly laugh. Truth is more humorous than fiction, plus it sounds like a great idea for a Dilbert cartoon. I just read an article ("The Free Lunch is Over") with respect to #4 that made the point: multicores and HT will help all of our spyware to run faster, but nothing much else to cheer about. The "creative redefinitions" of GHz will be much like car manufacturers boasting about horsepower. There's a saying "horsepower sells cars; torque wins races." I suppose multithreaded apps will have to be the "PC torque." Either way, I guess I'm excited about my spyware running faster. Also, regarding #10 - not sure about the magazine cover for Scoble, but he's quickly becoming the geek version of The Drudge Report. :-)
# 2005 predictions JesPosted @ 12/29/2004 5:20 PM
# re: Yet Another 2005 Prediction List Kris-o-RamaPosted @ 12/29/2004 3:08 PMHere are my predictions - Don Box quits Microsoft and joins Google to embrace Java, Python and his former love C++ to build WS-Google stack!
# re: Yet Another 2005 Prediction List jinath Posted @ 12/29/2004 5:15 PMcan't you Predict a Tsunami in 2005 :)
# re: Yet Another 2005 Prediction List waveinfinPosted @ 12/29/2004 6:46 PMwhy not these predictions contains some views about currently programming language? I want to know the future of C++,can someone tell me?
# re: Yet Another 2005 Prediction List shoobyPosted @ 12/30/2004 1:07 AMMine own predictions, as a top 10 list 10. Don Boxs head wont fit on earth anymore, he moves to Venus, because it rhymes with what Bill Gates is. 9. Longhorn renamed 'who the fuck cares'. 8. Another 2 or 3 hundred critical Windows XP patches 7. Another 2 or 3 hundred critical but unpatched Windows XP exploites 6. Windows 98 still running on most IT computers. 5. Most XP users don't realize that with a new set of icons, they wouldnt know the difference between XP and Windows 98 4. Office 2005 'Rent by the minute' licensing plan announced, no one buys any. 3. Bill Gates still a smelly loser who doesnt care who he steals from. 2. More 'charity' from Bill, you guessed it, free Windows 98 licensese. and the number 1 1. More and more people will realize that Microsoft is whats wrong with the software industry, perhaps even Mr Box ...give it a shot
# shooby Mr. AmericaPosted @ 12/30/2004 4:13 AMshooby, your top 10 list and your site reveal a certain idiocy fostered by ... well, we'll just leave it at that
# re: Yet Another 2005 Prediction List shoobyPosted @ 12/30/2004 4:31 AMI use humor to make a point. Others can't even finish a sentence.
# re: Yet Another 2005 Prediction List MSPosted @ 12/30/2004 4:47 AMShooby: If you had done what Don had done (started a very successful company training company, written one of the most successful book on Windows programming, co-authored SOAP, and engineered Indigo (in process)), I wonder what planet would your head fit in. Maybe Jupiter, because its full of gas just like your head. Why don't you do something worthwhile like building a killer OS instead of spewing venom against XP/Longhorn? > Don Boxs head wont fit on earth anymore, he > moves to Venus FYI, Venus is smaller than Earth.
# Don Box：2005年IT技术前景预测 (2004.12.30) 来自：CSDN GeraniumPosted @ 12/30/2004 7:49 AMPing Back??:blog.csdn.net
# re: Yet Another 2005 Prediction List CramPosted @ 12/30/2004 5:03 AMShoob, Relax fella... Software is still so young. Your 'any other than M$' wishes are coming true right before our eyes as other companies gain their share of the market. You seem bitter. Let the market dictate the software business.
# re: Yet Another 2005 Prediction List shoobyPosted @ 12/30/2004 5:48 AMFYI, I read the book, seen the OS, and have had my own share of good stuff. The main point is, no one invests in software companies, and thereby inovation, because its stolen by Microsoft. Why do market research for someone those creeps. And if you'd ever done business with Microsoft on that level, thats what you'd call them too. I'm trying to convince you not to abet the rogue behaviour of this bad mannered corporation. Don is just the bongo-drum du jour. I dont blame Don for working for them, and I'm sure he feels the same way about them, but is quiet, more or less, while he's cashing their checks. I guess what pisses you off is that I'm good at it. So, be really pissed.
# re: Yet Another 2005 Prediction List SriramPosted @ 12/30/2004 9:28 AMShooby -I usually don't believe in engaging trolls - but come on!No one invests in software companies?? Oh well..I should try another profession then.
# 2005 Predictions [Smalltalk]Posted @ 12/30/2004 2:51 PMPredictions for 2005 from Scoble, Pirillo, Battelle and Box. I'll spare you mine......
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